This is part of a series of Declarer Play articles, designed to build on one another. For the best learning experience, it is recommended to study them in sequence.
When declaring a no-trump contract, your count and plan must account for how many tricks the defenders can win—both immediate high cards and established secondary tricks.
Counting their high-card winners is straightforward—they hold all the high cards you don’t.
However, counting their established secondary tricks requires a more detailed process.
We start by assuming their cards are distributed as evenly as possible, without expecting the distribution to be perfectly balanced. This assumption serves as a foundation, which we refine by gathering additional information to confirm or adjust it.
In this section, we’ll explore how analyzing the bidding can help with this process.
Example 1
| Dummy ♠ T 8 2 |
| You ♠ K 6 |
The Left Hand Opponent (LHO) leads the fourth-best spade.
With eight spades in total, we initially assume a 5-3 split based on the standard approach for estimating suit distribution.
Next, we examine clues from the bidding to determine if an alternative assumption, such as a 4-4 or 6-2 split, might be more accurate.
If you’re unsure about how many cards your opponents’ opening bids and overcalls typically represent, it might be helpful to review those concepts before proceeding with this section.
| West 2♠ P | North P P | East P P | You 2N |
For this hand, the bidding is definitive.
How do the spades split?
It’s always possible that the Left Hand Opponent (LHO) made an error or was deceptive in their bidding. However, in the long run, it’s more effective to trust the opponents’ bidding and use it to draw logical and informed conclusions.
Example 2
| Dummy ♥ 7 5 2 |
| You ♥ K 9 3 |
West leads a 4th best heart. What is the starting split assumption?
| West 1♥ P | North P P | East P P | You 1N |
What suit length does the 1♥ opening bid promise?
Example 3
| Dummy ♣ T 8 2 |
| You ♣ K 6 |
West leads a small club. What is the starting split assumption?
Next we test our assumption by reviewing the bidding.
| West 1♥ P | North P P | East P P | You 1N |
What suit length does a 1♣ opening bid promise?
After reviewing the bidding, we found no reason to discard our initial assumption of a 5-3 split. The next few sections will explore additional sources of information to refine split assumptions. If these also provide no new insights into the distribution of the club suit, we will proceed with planning based on the 5-3 split.
Example 4
| Dummy ♥ T 8 2 |
| You ♥ K 6 |
West’s opening lead is a 4th best heart. What is the starting split assumption?
| West 1♣ P | North P P | East P P | You 1N |
When West opens with 1♣, it doesn’t reveal much about the distribution of their club suit. However, the 1♣ bid provides significant information about the distribution of their heart suit.
Is our 5-3 assumption for the heart split confirmed?
Example 5
| Dummy ♠ 5 4 3 |
| You ♠ A T 8 6 |
West leads a spade spot card. What is the starting split assumption?
Now review the bidding.
| West – 1♠ | North – P | East – P | You 1♣ 1N |
After a 1♠ overcall, is the 4-2 assumption confirmed?
You are permitted to ask East how often West overcalls with four-card suits. Their response can help you decide whether to assume a 4-2 or 5-1 split.
Example 6
| Dummy ♥ 7 |
| You ♥ A 9 3 |
The opening lead is a small heart. What is our split assumption?
Now review the bidding.
| West 3♥ P | North DBL P | East P P | You 3N |
Is the split assumption confirmed?
★ You should not wait for the bidding to be over before you start thinking about what it tells you. As soon as West opens 3♥, you should be thinking, “7 card suit, weak hand.”
Example 7
| Dummy ♥ 2 |
| You ♥ Q T 8 6 |
West leads a heart. What is the starting split assumption?
| West 1♦ P | North 1♠ P | East P P | You 1N |
How many hearts does West have after opening the bidding with 1♦?
Example 8
| Dummy ♠ 7 4 3 |
| You ♠ A J |
West leads a small spade. What is our split assumption?
Now let’s review the bidding.
| West – 1♠ | North – DBL | East P 2♠ | You 1♦ 2N |
How many hearts does West have after opening the bidding with 1♦?
Example 9
| Dummy ♦ 9 8 4 |
| You ♦ K 7 3 |
This hand demonstrates how combining two key factors—the bidding and the suit led—can lead to a more accurate evaluation of the suit distribution.
West leads a low diamond. How many diamonds are they likely to hold?
What is our split assumption for diamonds?
| West – DBL | North – 1♥ | East – 1♠ | You 1♣ 2N |
Typically, West would lead spades after their partner indicated a spade fit. However, they chose to lead diamonds instead. Why? West likely believes a diamond lead offers a much better chance of defeating the 2NT contract than leading a suit with a known fit (spades). Otherwise, they would be expected to lead the suit their partner bid.
So… How many diamonds does West have?
Just to double check… Is it consistent with West’s takeout double that he could hold 5 diamonds?
Example 10
| Dummy ♠ 7 4 3 ♥ K 7 6 3 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ A 4 3 |
| You ♠ K 8 ♥ J T 8 ♦ A Q T 5 ♣ Q T 7 3 |
This time we again consider two factors together, hcp and the bidding.
West leads a small spade. What is our split assumption?
The deck contains 40 high card points (HCP) in total. Add your HCP to those in Dummy’s hand. How many high card points are left for the opponents?
Now let’s review the bidding.
| West – P | North – 1♥ | East P P | You 1♦ 1N |
Both East and West had the chance to bid at a low level but chose not to. If one of them held the majority of their combined 21 high card points (HCP), they likely would have made a bid. This suggests that their HCP are distributed between the two players.
So what? How does that help us evaluate our split assumption?
Well… with their hcp divided, West has the strength for a 1♠ overcall that he didn’t make.
He’s led a spade, but he didn’t overcall 1♠
How many spades does he have?
The examples on this page demonstrate how analyzing the bidding can help you make more accurate assumptions about suit distribution. Even when your opponents pass, their actions can provide valuable information.
You might say, “I can follow the explanations in these example hands, but I’ve never done it myself. I don’t think I’ll be any good at it. How important is this skill, really?”
It’s a skill you’ll need to develop over time. Start gradually by studying hand diagrams and bidding sequences from books or practice materials. This gives you the opportunity to take your time and carefully analyze each bid. With consistent practice, reviewing the bidding will eventually become second nature.