This is one of a series of Declarer Play articles. These articles build upon each other, so I recommend that you study them in order.
So far, we have covered several key aspects of declarer play:
- The importance of counting winners and losers accurately to form a solid plan for the hand.
- The use of assumptions about defensive skaters, which provide a practical shortcut to avoid relying on complex suit-length probability charts.
- How the information gathered from the bidding process helps us determine suit splits and estimate where the defensive skaters might lie.
- How to analyze the opening lead to gain insights into the distribution of the remaining suits, allowing for more precise counting and planning.
With these concepts in mind, we are better equipped to make informed decisions during the play, ultimately improving our ability to execute successful contracts.
If you haven’t seen those pages yet, you may want to read them before coming back here.
On this page, we’ll see how discards are a definitive answer about the exact number of defensive skaters.
Example 1
| Dummy ♣ T 8 2 |
| You ♣ K 6 |
Let’s do a quick review of using the bidding and the opening lead to test split assumptions.
West leads a club against your 3N contract. How many clubs do the defenders have?
What is the split assumption?
| West – P | North 1♥ 2♠ | East P P | You 2♦ 3N |
What does the bidding reveal about the length of West’s club suit?
The opening lead is the ♣7. East plays the ♣J. How many lower spot cards are “missing”?
There’s nothing out of the ordinary in considering that the opening leader might hold one of the missing spot cards, suggesting a five-card suit. At this stage, we have no reason to discard the assumption of a 5-3 split. Therefore, we will proceed with our plans based on this assumption.
Example 1 (repeated)
| Dummy ♣ T 8 2 |
| You ♣ K 6 |
The Play of the Hand
During the play, East follows suit with clubs twice and then discards on the third round.
Given that there are 8 clubs between both hands, and we know how many East held, we can now determine the exact distribution of clubs. Based on this information, the split is 5-3, with West holding 5 clubs and East holding 3.
Pay close attention whenever an opponent discards a card. A discard can render all of our previous assumptions, analysis, and speculations obsolete. It provides crucial new information that may completely alter our understanding of the distribution. If the distribution of the club suit is important to the hand, a discard could signal the need to adjust your strategy for the remainder of the play.
“Why do we use all these uncertain methods to figure out splits when discards can give us the answer?” someone asks.
That’s a great question. Sometimes waiting for a discard is all we need to determine the distribution of a critical suit. But in most cases, we must make a plan as soon as we see the dummy. Discards typically happen later in the play, by which time it might be too late to adjust our strategy effectively.
So, we rely on split assumptions, the bidding, and the opening lead to help us form a plan early on, well before any discards are made.
While discards often confirm that our plan was on track, it’s important to stay flexible. A discard could also signal that we need to revise our approach based on new information.
Example 2
| Dummy ♦ A Q 6 4 2 |
| You ♦ J T 5 |
You have the majority of the diamonds, including a nice five card suit in Dummy.
Of course you hope to establish Dummy’s spot cards as skaters. What is the split assumption?
You lead the ♦J, covered by the ♦K, and you win the ♦A, while RHO follows suit.
Next you lead Dummy’s ♦2, and RHO discards. Oh-oh. It doesn’t look like they’re splitting the way we hoped. Of course you win this trick with your ♦T.
What is the split?
If you play your last diamond master (♦Q) on the third round, will your 2 small diamonds then be skaters?
You have two remaining diamond spot cards in the dummy, and the left-hand opponent holds only one diamond. By leading diamonds, you can force them to play their winning card, thus potentially developing a fifth-round winner in diamonds for yourself. This move could help you establish an additional trick in the suit, providing an important advantage as the play progresses.
Example 2 (repeated)
| Dummy ♦ A Q 6 4 2 |
| You ♦ J T 5 |
Now let’s start over and try a different variation.
You lead the ♦J from your hand, intending to finesse, while hoping for future skaters. But LHO discards.
What is the split?
How many skaters can you establish?
How many tricks can you win with honors?
When you lead the ♦J and LHO discards, would it be OK to play Dummy’s ♦A to prevent RHO from winning the trick?
Example 3
| Dummy ♠ K 6 |
| You ♠ A 7 5 4 3 2 |
What is the split assumption?
If the split assumption turns out to be correct, how many skaters can you establish?
If the spades do indeed split 3-2, how many spades must you lose before you can cash your skaters?
How many rounds must you play to discover whether or not the split assumption is correct?
Heads up! Suppose you see a discard on the second round…
If you see a discard on the second round, what is the split?
After a second round discard, how many spades must you lose before you have any skaters?
After that unfavorable second-round discard, how many skaters can you eventually establish?
And now it gets as bad as possible…
Suppose you see a discard on the first round. The split is 5-0. How many skaters can you eventually establish?
How many tricks must you lose before you can cash your skater?
“That 5-0 split in spades really leaves me with little to work with right from the start. Are there other suits where I can establish extra winners more efficiently, without giving up multiple tricks first?”
That’s a great question. In many cases, a 5-0 split like that could quickly lead to a set contract if the defenders are able to win three unexpected spade tricks.
Fortunately, such an extreme split is rare. However, when it does happen, recognizing the discard early on is crucial. By doing so, you can adjust your strategy in real time and avoid falling into a losing position.
Pay attention to the actual cards discarded
We’ve seen that early discards help us diagnose the split of the suit led.
Now we’ll turn our attention to how discards help us figure out the split of the suit discarded.
Example 4
| Dummy ♠ K Q 6 |
| You ♠ A 7 5 3 |
You have three high card winners.
You have 7 clubs, so they have 6.
You can hope for a favorable split so you’ll also have a skater. What split is that?
| Dummy ♣ K Q 6 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ T 9 8 2 |
| You ♣ A 7 5 3 | |
But if the clubs split 4-2 (or worse), there will be no skater.
Unless…
| Dummy ♣ K Q 6 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ T 9 8 |
| You ♣ A 7 5 3 | |
If the defender with the four-card club suit is unable to follow suit when a spade (or heart, or diamond) is led, they are forced to discard one of their clubs. This action changes the original 4-2 split into a 3-2 split, with only two clubs left in the defender’s hand. This information is useful for adjusting your strategy and determining the remaining distribution of suits.
You can pick up a 3-2 split with your 3 master cards and have a skater.
Why would a defender make such a discard, giving you an extra skater?
The defender is unaware of what you have in your hand, so he doesn’t realize that his four small clubs are preventing you from developing a winning trick. As a result, he decides to discard one of his clubs, which he later regrets.
However, he will only regret this decision if you notice the discard and recognize that your three remaining clubs have already captured all the other clubs, leaving you with a winning club trick.
If you fail to remember the club discard, you might mistakenly assume that there is still one club outstanding, leading you to believe the split is 4-2. This false assumption could cause you to overlook the potential for a winning club trick.
It’s understandable to get confused with 4-2 splits that might change into 3-2 splits. After all, you know their six cards can’t magically turn into five. This can make the situation seem tricky.
Instead of focusing on the potential splits, try counting the actual cards the opponents have. For example, you know they have six clubs. Start tracking them as soon as the first discard is made — that’s one club. If they both follow suit to your first master, that gives you clubs 2 and 3. When they follow to your second master, that’s clubs 4 and 5. By the time you play your third master, you’ll have captured all six, and that means your remaining club is a winning trick, or a skater.
“This method seems much easier to understand,” he says with a smile. “I’m going to give it a go!”
Example 5
| Dummy ♥ A 9 6 |
| You ♥ K Q 4 3 |
What split would give you a skater?
You cash your ♥A and your ♥K, both following suit. Can you tell yet if you have a skater?
Suppose you cash your third master card, and RHO discards. What do you conclude?
| Dummy ♥ A 9 6 | |
| West ♥ J 8 7 | East ♥ T 5 |
| You ♥ K Q 4 3 | |
However…
Imagine that East has discarded from a 3-card holding early in the play. As a result, when you lead your third heart master, East doesn’t follow suit and instead discards from another suit.
If you didn’t notice East’s initial heart discard—before you started playing your heart masters—you might mistakenly believe that West still holds a heart. This could lead you to think that you don’t have a winning trick in hearts when, in fact, you do. By missing this key detail, you might overlook the fact that East has no more hearts left, and you actually have a winning trick, or “skater,” in the suit.
When an early discard occurs, it’s crucial to take note of the suit being discarded and commit it to memory. If you fail to do this, you might later miscount the cards in that suit, leading you to incorrect conclusions about whether you have a skater or not. As you plan your strategy, especially when counting hearts to determine if you have a skater, begin tracking as soon as you see the first heart discarded. Remind yourself, “One heart played,” and continue from there, keeping an accurate count to avoid any confusion later on.
Example 6
| Dummy ♠ T 3 2 ♥ A 9 6 ♦ K 8 6 4 ♣ K Q 6 |
| You ♠ J 9 4 ♥ K Q 4 2 ♦ A 7 ♣ A 7 5 3 |
Your contract is 3N. How many winners do you have?
The opening lead is a 4th best spade, the ♠5. There are no missing lower spot cards. What does the lead tell you?
As the play continues, each player follows suit to three rounds of spades. When the fourth round of spades is led, the player on your right (RHO) will be forced to discard a card. Pay close attention to this discard, as it could provide vital information to help you correctly count a critical suit.
Which suits are crucial for you to count accurately in order to determine if you have a skater? There are two suits that require special attention. Identifying these two suits will help you ensure you don’t miss any critical information that could impact your strategy and trick count.
If RHO discards a diamond, might that help you?
Whatever suit RHO discards, remember it.
Now, let’s turn our attention to your hand. Once the defenders cash the fourth round of spades, you will be out of that suit. At that point, you’ll need to choose another suit from which to discard. However, before making your discard, it’s important to keep in mind that you still need one more trick to fulfill your contract. Be careful not to discard a card that could potentially be your crucial winner!
What do you discard?
Example 7
| Dummy ♠ 7 ♥ K 9 8 3 ♦ A 8 5 4 2 ♣ Q 3 2 |
| You ♠ A J 6 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 7 6 ♣ A K 7 6 5 |
Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is ♠5. RHO plays the ♠9.
What is the split assumption for spades?
How many winners do they have?
Now count your own winners.
You only need one more winner to make 3N.
This seems like a straightforward hand, with a solid plan in place. You assumed the clubs would split 3-2, which would have given you two club skaters for an overtrick. Even with a 4-1 split, you thought you could afford to lose a club and still establish a skater. Having all the aces gives you the confidence that getting the lead back would not be a problem.
However, when you win the opening lead with your ♠J and proceed to lead a club, you notice that LHO discards a ♥4. This signals that the clubs are not splitting as expected. In fact, the clubs may be splitting 4-1, leaving you with a problem. The question now is whether you can still afford to lose a club and still create a skater. Can you adjust your plan to deal with this new development?
Before we continue with our analysis, what are you supposed to remember?
Now that we know what to remember, we can go back to our analysis.
Clubs cannot give us the extra trick we need. They split too poorly.
How about diamonds? If diamonds split as favorably as possible (3-3), you could play 3 rounds (losing two of them) to develop fourth and fifth round skaters. That would give you the trick you need plus an overtrick.
“Overtricks are always appealing,” you might say, but hold on a moment. It’s crucial to consider the consequences of losing two diamonds.
If you lose the first diamond, they will likely switch back to spades, forcing you to lose your ♠A. Then, when they win the second diamond, how many spade winners will they be able to cash?
This shift in the play could allow the opponents to gain additional tricks, and it’s important to understand exactly how many tricks they can establish once you start losing diamonds. Make sure to assess the entire impact of losing those diamonds before you make a decision to aim for overtricks.
Example 7 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ 7 ♥ K 9 8 3 ♦ A 8 5 4 2 ♣ Q 3 2 |
| You ♠ A J 6 ♥ A 6 2 ♦ 7 6 ♣ A K 7 6 5 |
You cannot afford to lose 2 diamonds, because they would cash their spade skaters and set your contract before you can cash diamond skaters.
So clubs and diamonds don’t work. No extra trick in those suits.
Now look at hearts. What can you hope for in hearts?
What are you remembering?
You play low hearts from both hands, both opponents following suit. Remember we are counting their hearts, not yours. What is your new count of hearts played?
They force out your ♠A. And now it’s time to see if you are going to make your contract.
You cash your ♥A on the second round of hearts, and both follow suit. No problem yet. What is the heart count?
Then when you lead to Dummy’s ♥K, one opponent follows suit and the other discards. Now what should you do?
Whenever a suit’s distribution is crucial to your strategy, such as when you’re unsure whether you have skaters or not, it’s essential to closely monitor and count any discards in that suit. This helps you keep track of the distribution and allows you to adjust your plan accordingly, ensuring you don’t miss any potential winners or opportunities to control the play.
Let’s look at another example where you must see and count discards in a suit where you hope for skaters.
Example 8
| Dummy ♠ 7 5 4 ♥ K 8 5 3 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ A K 4 |
| You ♠ T 8 6 3 ♥ A Q 2 ♦ A K Q 3 ♣ 9 5 |
This is a challenge hand about seeing and counting discards.
Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is a fourth-best ♠2.
Let’s count and plan.
How many winners do you have?
You need one more winner. Where might you get it?
How many winners do the defenders have?
Example 8 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ 7 5 4 ♥ K 8 5 3 ♦ 8 4 2 ♣ A K 4 |
| You ♠ T 8 6 3 ♥ A Q 2 ♦ A K Q 3 ♣ 9 5 |
The play begins as the defenders cash their four spade winners, followed by a club lead, which you win in your hand.
At this point, you have the option to test for a potential skater in either hearts or diamonds. You decide to begin with hearts and proceed to cash your three highest honors. On the third round, one of the defenders discards a card. Based on this, it becomes clear that a 4-2 split has occurred, and there are no heart skaters available.
Next, you move on to cash your top three diamonds. Once again, during the third round, a defender discards a card. Based on this, you confirm that there are no potential skaters in the diamond suit either.
This means you now know that you don’t have skaters in either suit, and you need to adjust your strategy accordingly.
What mistake(s) did the player make?
Let’s go back and talk about the play right before you played hearts. How many defensive discards were made before the first round of hearts?
If it turns out there is NO heart skater…
….you must play diamonds next, counting their diamonds to see if you have a skater.
They were dealt 6 diamonds. To have a skater you must see all 6 played before you try to cash your fourth diamond. So, add previous diamond discards to diamonds you see when you play your three masters.
How many defensive discards would there be before you start playing diamonds?
If both hearts and diamonds have skaters, will you make an overtrick?
We’ve explored the significance of paying attention to opponents’ discards in order to determine which suits are splitting favorably and which ones are not.
Next, we’ll focus on strategies to prevent the opponents from cashing all their skaters when we lose the lead. Understanding this will help you manage the play effectively and protect your contract.