This is part of a series of Declarer Play articles that build on one another. To get the most benefit, it’s recommended to study them in sequence.
Counting your own winners is simple—what you see is what you have.
However, counting the opponents’ winners requires evaluating what you don’t see. Fortunately, this is also straightforward—they hold all the honors that are not in your hand or Dummy’s.
Example 1
| Dummy ♠ J T 8 7 ♥ A K 6 4 ♦ Q 7 2 ♣ 6 5 |
| You ♠ Q 9 4 ♥ Q 5 3 ♦ A K 5 2 ♣ K Q J |
How many winners do you have? Be sure to consider both hands, and only count established tricks—do not include potential tricks from long suits unless you are certain they can be cashed.
How many winners do the defenders
Example 2
| Dummy ♠ A 9 ♥ Q T 5 ♦ K J T 7 2 ♣ 9 5 2 |
| You ♠ Q 9 4 ♥ J 9 7 6 ♦ A 9 6 ♣ Q J T |
How many winners do you have?
How many winners do the defenders have?
Example 3
| Dummy ♠ K J T 9 ♥ Q 8 ♦ Q T 7 2 ♣ 9 5 2 |
| You ♠ Q 9 ♥ J T 9 7 ♦ K J 9 6 ♣ Q J T |
How many winners do you have?
How many winners do the defenders have?
Why does counting winners matter?
You might say, “I understand counting my own winners,” adding, “so I know how many more I need to make my contract. But why do I need to count their winners? They have whatever aces and kings they were dealt, and there’s nothing I can do about that.”
That’s a great question! Let’s explore why it matters.
Counting winners helps guide your decisions, showing you which plays to pursue and which to avoid.
Let’s look at a few examples…
Example 4
| Dummy ♠ A Q 6 ♥ 4 2 |
| You ♠ 8 6 ♥ K Q 7 |
Imagine you need just one more guaranteed trick to make your contract, and you have two possible options:
- Drive out the ♥A to establish a heart honor.
- Attempt a finesse with the ♠Q, hoping the ♠K is well-placed.
Which is the better choice?
The correct answer is…
…you need to count your opponents’ winners before deciding.
If the opponents don’t have enough winners to defeat your contract, driving out the ♥A is guaranteed to give you the extra trick you need.
It’s a reliable option but a “slow” one—you’ll need to surrender the lead and wait while they play all the tricks they’ve already established before regaining the lead and cashing your own winners. Playing “slowly” like this is perfectly fine… if the defense doesn’t have enough tricks to set your contract.
Example 4 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ A Q 6 ♥ 4 2 |
| You ♠ 8 6 ♥ K Q 7 |
But if they do have enough winners to set your contract, you must risk the spade finesse.
It only gives you a 50-50 chance to get your one-more-trick. But if it succeeds, you get your extra trick without losing the lead, so you can cash your tricks “faster” and make your contract before the bad guys have the chance to defeat it.
Of course, you won’t know how many winners each partnership has unless you count them.
Example 5
| Dummy ♠ A K 6 2 ♥ 4 2 |
| You ♠ Q 7 4 ♥ K Q 7 |
This is similar to example 4. Again, you need just one more cashable trick to make your contract.
Is it better to force out the ♥A, or play the top three spades, hoping for a 3-3 split?
Driving out the ♥A is guaranteed to establish the trick you need. But it loses the lead. It’s “slow.”
You can’t tell if that’s a good plan until you count the winners for the defense.
If the defense doesn’t have enough winners to set your contract…
✓ Play hearts (slow but certain).
If the defense already has enough winners to set your contract…
✓ Your only hope for one more trick would be a “faster” fourth-round spade skater. It’s “faster” because it doesn’t lose the lead. Faster, but not certain. You won’t have a skater if the spades don’t split 3-3. Oh well… some contracts do fail, no matter how well you count and plan.
One more point… there’s a trap to be avoided:
You might consider starting with spades, reasoning that if they don’t split 3-3, you can then switch to hearts.
However, you must count tricks before deciding if this approach is safe, because…
If the spades don’t split evenly, playing the ♠AKQ could establish a spade trick for the defense (perhaps the ♠J). Then, when you move to hearts, the defense may have that extra trick to cash before you regain the lead. Would that ♠J be enough to defeat your contract?
No surprise… it’s a counting question!
★ You must count tricks.
There’s no way around it. All good declarers count tricks.
Every hand.
At the very least you must determine if the defense has enough winners to set your contract.
Example 6
| Dummy ♠ A T ♥ Q 7 6 ♦ A J T 4 2 ♣ 8 4 3 |
| You ♠ K 8 5 3 ♥ J T 9 8 ♦ K Q 6 ♣ K 6 |
The opening lead is ♣7, and third seat plays the ♣J. Of course, you win the trick with your ♣K.
How many winners do you have?
How many winners does the defense have?
Two hearts and… hmmm… how many clubs? We know they have 8 clubs, but can’t tell how many clubs they can cash because we don’t know how the clubs split.
You’ve already won the opening club lead with your ♣K. The opponents have played ♣7 and ♣J.
| ♣ A Q T 7 | ♣ J 9 5 2 |
If clubs split 4-4, how many cashable clubs do they have?
| ♣ A Q T 7 5 | ♣ J 9 2 |
And if they split 5-3?
| ♣ A Q T 7 5 2 | ♣ J 9 |
And if they split 6-2?
You might say, “Hold on a second! You told me I need to count tricks, but you also said I can’t know exactly how many tricks they have because I don’t know how their suit is divided. What am I supposed to do?”
Great observation! In fact, figuring out how many extra tricks they can establish is so important that we’ll spend the next several sections addressing your question!