Drop Their Honor

You have two high-ranking cards (honors) in your hand, but one of them is vulnerable to being overtaken. Additionally, you lack sufficient low-ranking cards (spot cards). Leading toward your vulnerable honor does not help uncover the location of the ♣Q on the favorable side. If you lose a trick to the on-side ♣Q, your ♣J becomes a high card, but since each hand will only have two clubs remaining, playing the ♣J will conflict with your ♣A and ♣K, preventing you from gaining an additional trick.

Your only opportunity to win a third club trick is to rely on favorable distribution. Lead your two high cards (♣A and ♣K). If the ♣Q was dealt as a singleton or doubleton, it will fall under your ♣A and ♣K, leaving your ♣J as a winning card in the third round.

Imagine you have an additional low-ranking card (spot card). Now, if you lead toward your vulnerable honor, it can successfully gain a trick if the ♠Q is favorably placed. Once the opponent captures the ♠Q, you will have just enough spot cards to ensure that your three high cards (masters) can each win a separate trick.

The key question becomes: which strategy offers a better chance of securing a third spade trick? Is it better to rely on the ♠Q being in a favorable position to win a trick by leading toward your vulnerable honor, or should you attempt to drop the ♠Q through direct play?

With seven cards in the suit, the 50-50 odds of leading toward the ♠J are statistically better than the odds of trying to make the ♠Q fall by assuming a specific unfavorable distribution. By leading toward your honor, you maximize your chances of success and increase the likelihood of turning your three high cards into separate tricks.

How many hearts do your opponents hold?

Should you lead toward your losing honor (♥J)?

You lead the ♦A, and both opponents follow suit with low-ranking cards. Next, you lead toward the ♦J in the dummy, and West again plays a low-ranking diamond.

At this point, you need to consider how many diamonds each opponent originally held. Based on their consistent play of low cards, what is the likely distribution of diamonds in their hands? Observing the sequence of plays and the cards visible on the table will help you deduce how many diamonds West initially started with.

Do you finesse or play for the drop?

Does the inclusion of the seemingly insignificant ♦2 change your strategy? As always, the key to making the right decision lies in careful counting and analysis.

To determine the best approach, start by asking: how many diamonds did your opponents begin with? Observing their played cards and keeping track of the suit distribution will help you answer this question accurately. Understanding their original diamond holdings is crucial for deciding how to proceed effectively.

Do you finesse or play for the drop?

In this scenario, you are missing four cards in the suit, but this time, it is the ♣K that is absent instead of the ♣Q.

The key question is whether it is more advantageous to play for the ♣K to drop naturally or to lead the ♣Q, aiming for what is known as a “squeeze finesse.”

The odds do not favor playing for the ♣K to drop because you only have one high card to lead, limiting your ability to force the king out. On the other hand, leading the ♣Q for the finesse provides a stronger chance of success, as it targets the possibility of forcing an opponent to cover the honor, allowing you to establish control of the suit. Statistically, the finesse is the better strategic choice.

How many cards do they have?

Do you finesse or play for the drop?