This is part of a series of articles on Declarer Play. Each article builds on concepts introduced in the previous ones, so it’s recommended to study them sequentially for a clearer understanding and better mastery.
The idea of an opponent being “dangerous” or “safe” refers to the potential outcomes if they gain the lead. (Of course, by “dangerous,” we mean to your contract—they’re not about to run off with your favorite treat!)
Example 1
| Dummy ♥ 9 4 | |
| West | East |
| You ♥ A 6 | |
The defenders can drive out our ♥A to establish tricks in hearts.
Before hearts are played, both defenders are considered “safe” because they have not yet established their hearts as winners. Neither opponent poses an immediate threat to your contract with the initial lead of hearts.
As long as we can regain control by capturing either defender’s lead with our high heart card, both opponents are considered “safe.”
But after our ♥A is gone, both opponents would become dangerous. Then either one could lead a heart and they could cash as many heart winners as they were dealt.
Example 2
| Dummy ♥ 9 4 | |
| West | East |
| You ♥ K 6 | |
In the previous example, both defenders started out safe because we still had the master card in hearts. Then, when our ♥A was gone, both became dangerous.
Now suppose we start with the ♥K instead of the ♥A.
In this case, West starts out safe and East starts out dangerous.
Why?
- West starts out safe because he cannot make a heart lead that puts our contract in immediate danger. If West makes the first heart lead, our ♥K will be promoted by playing last – similar to having the ♥A. They would not be able to cash their whole heart suit without giving up the lead to your ♥K. So West starts out safe.
- But East starts out dangerous. He could indeed make a heart lead that would put our contract in danger. With the lead coming from our right, we might get our ♥K squished. They could then cash all their hearts without giving up the lead, which would be very bad for our contract. So East is dangerous.
Example 3
| Dummy ♣ K 8 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ A Q T 7 5 2 |
| You ♣ 9 6 3 | |
East has a very threatening club suit. If Dummy’s ♣K gets squished, East could take 6 club tricks.
But that can only happen if West leads clubs. So West is the dangerous opponent.
If East leads a club, Dummy’s ♣K plays last and becomes a winner. So we call the East hand safe.
Example 3 (repeated)
| Dummy ♣ K 8 | |
| West | East |
| You ♣ 9 6 3 | |
Even if you can’t see their cards (and you’re not supposed to peek…) you can tell which opponent is dangerous. Only West can lead through your ♣K and possibly get it squished. He’s dangerous.
Example 3 (repeated)
| Dummy ♣ K 8 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ A Q T 7 5 2 |
| You ♣ 9 6 3 | |
Curiously, if East is on lead, and he decides to play his ♣A and another club (giving you a trick with your ♣K), the dangerous hand switches.
After those two club plays, East would have 4 club skaters to cash. That makes him dangerous.
How many clubs would West have left?
Would West be dangerous or safe?
Example 3 (repeated)
| Dummy ♣ K 8 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ A Q T 7 5 2 |
| You ♣ 9 6 3 | |
Now, for the final variation: If East is on lead and plays a low club, we must win the trick with the ♣K. At this point, only one round of clubs has been played.
Who’s dangerous?
Example 4
| Dummy ♠ 3 | |
| West | East |
| You ♠ K 7 6 2 | |
| West 3♠ P | North DBL P | East P P | You 3N P |
West leads a spade against your 3N contract. East plays the ♠J, and you win with your ♠K.
Think about what the bidding tells you about the spade split before you continue.
After you win the opening lead with your ♠K, are both opponents dangerous?
Example 4 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ 3 | |
| West ♣ J 4 | East ♣ A Q T 7 5 2 |
| You ♠ K 7 6 2 | |
Now let’s start over. West leads a small spade and East plays his singleton ♠J.
Suppose you decide to let East win this first trick.
Is East safe or dangerous?
Is West safe or dangerous?
Summary:
- If you win the opening lead with your ♠K, you get a winner, but West becomes dangerous.
- If you decide not to win the opening lead with your ♠K, you may never get a spade winner, but West is safe.
A question arises: “I understand why you describe the opponents as either dangerous or safe, but I don’t see how that knowledge helps me.”
“Actually,” comes the reply, “understanding which opponents are safe or dangerous can guide you in choosing the best declarer strategies.
Let’s revisit the spades from example 4, place them in a full hand, and see how this concept works in practice…”
Example 5
| Dummy ♠ 3 ♥ K Q 6 5 ♦ K 8 6 4 ♣ A J 6 5 |
| You ♠ K 7 6 2 ♥ A 4 2 ♦ A 7 2 ♣ K T 3 |
Before playing to the opening lead, we count and plan.
Take inventory:
Your contract is 3N. LHO opened the bidding with 3♠ and his opening lead is a spade.
You need nine winners to make 3N. How many do you have?
You have chances for a ninth winner in three different suits…. one of which is guaranteed to develop a winner. Which suit has a guaranteed future extra winner?
Assess the threat:
After you win the first trick, West holds six spade winners. He is clearly dangerous as you have no more spade stoppers. But East is out of spades, so he is safe.
On some hands, East could lead a different suit and get the lead over to his dangerous partner. However, on this hand you have master cards in all the other suits, so there is no such danger.
Losing a trick to a safe opponent functions similarly to having an extra stopper. Just as a stopper prevents the opponents from cashing all their winners in a critical suit, losing the lead to a safe opponent ensures they can’t cash their winners in that suit either.
Example 5 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ 3 ♥ K Q 6 5 ♦ K 8 6 4 ♣ A J 6 5 |
| You ♠ K 7 6 2 ♥ A 4 2 ♦ A 7 2 ♣ K T 3 |
Before playing to the opening lead, we count and plan.
You can take the club finesse in either direction, arranging for either East or West to play last to the finesse.
We know which hand is safe and which is dangerous. Let’s look at two different club finesses to see which finesse is safe.
Option 1: If you decide to play the club finesse by leading the ♣3 toward Dummy’s ♣AJ, would it be a safe or dangerous finesse?
Safe. Only East’s harmless hand, playing last, can win this trick. West, the dangerous opponent, cannot win the finesse because if West plays the ♣Q in the second seat, it will be captured.
This safe finesse ensures your contract. If the ♣J wins, it provides the one additional trick you need. If the ♣J loses to East’s ♣Q, your ♣T will be promoted, becoming the extra trick required to succeed.
Option 2: If you decide to cross to the ♥Q and lead ♣5 toward your ♣KT, would it be a safe or dangerous finesse?
If you take the club finesse in the wrong direction, your contract could fail. Your partner might stay polite as the dangerous opponent cashes spade after spade, but she may quietly start wondering if the thoughtful gift she had planned for you could be exchanged for a refund.
Example 6
| Dummy ♥ 5 3 2 | |
| West | East |
| You ♥ K Q 6 | |
Let’s assume you have reason to believe that West holds at least a five-card heart suit. You win the opening lead from West with your ♥Q (since East cannot hold the ♥A; otherwise, he would have played it).
If East later gains the lead and plays hearts, your ♥K would be finessed and overpowered. This would allow West to cash the rest of his heart suit, which would be detrimental to your contract.
So after you win the opening lead, would you consider East to be dangerous or safe?
After you win the opening lead, is West dangerous or safe?
Now let’s put these hearts into a full hand.
Example 7
| Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4 ♥ 5 3 2 ♦ A 8 ♣ A K 5 |
| You ♠ K J ♥ K Q 6 ♦ Q J T 9 ♣ Q J 3 2 |
| West – 1♥ P | North – 1♠ 3N | East P P | You 1♦ 1N |
East is the dealer and passes. You open the bidding with 1♦ . West overcalls 1♥ and you end up declaring 3N.
West leads the ♥J (no surprise that he leads hearts…), and Partner puts down a nice dummy. You offer the customary comment, “Thank you, Partner,” and begin your hand analysis.
Take inventory:
You need 9 winners. How many do you have?
How many heart stoppers do you have?
What is the split assumption for hearts, and do you believe it?
Example 7 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4 ♥ 5 3 2 ♦ A 8 ♣ A K 5 |
| You ♠ K J ♥ K Q 6 ♦ Q J T 9 ♣ Q J 3 2 |
Assess the threat:
After your ♥Q wins the opening lead, West still holds 4 hearts. If East gains the lead in another suit and plays a heart, your ♥K will be finessed, allowing West to cash all 4 of his remaining hearts. This would give East one trick and West four, ultimately defeating your contract. Therefore, losing the lead to East would be very risky.
In contrast, if West gains the lead in another suit, he would not be able to cash his entire heart suit because your ♥K, playing last, would act as a stopper. Losing the lead to West in this case would be much safer.
Make a plan:
You need one more trick to make 3N. Where might you get the extra trick you need? Look at each suit and decide what the possibilities are before checking each answer.
| Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4 |
| You ♠ K J |
1) You have lots of promotable lesser honors in spades, so you could cash your top honors and force out the ♠Q, coming to 4 spade tricks. However, if you do this you cannot control who wins the ♠Q. If it’s a dangerous hand that gets the lead, this would be a terrible plan.
2) We need to make sure that the dangerous hand does not get the lead. If you lead from dummy and play the ♠J, only West can win your finesse. We’ve already figured out that he’s safe, so this is good. You get the one extra trick you need if the ♠J wins. But it might surprise you that you would end up with more tricks if the finesse loses to West’s ♠Q. Dummy’s lesser honors would be promoted, giving you 4 spade tricks instead of only 3 when the finesse wins.
3) There’s a third way you could play the spade suit. You could lead the ♠J from your hand, and play low in dummy. Then only East can win the trick. However, East is dangerous, so this is risky. On this deal you have no need to take risks. Reject this line of play.
“I’m feeling overwhelmed,” comes the comment. “Three winners, four winners, five winners—East, West, safe, dangerous, finesse or not. Can we take a break for a snack?”
“Of course,” comes the reply. “But no disappearing for too long! If we take a break, you’ll need to return and work through this answer before we move forward.”
| Dummy ♥ 5 3 |
| You ♥ K 6 |
This diagram shows your remaining hearts after the opening lead. The only way to get an extra trick from your ♥K is if LHO leads the suit so you can play last with your remaining ♥K6.
If anyone else leads hearts, LHO will look at the card you play before he decides whether to win the trick with his ♥A or his ♥T. Then he’ll cash the rest of his hearts. So don’t play hearts yourself.
| Dummy ♦ A 8 |
| You ♦ Q J T 9 |
You could lead your ♦Q and (if the ♦K doesn’t cover) play low in dummy, finessing so only East can win the trick. But East is dangerous, so you should avoid this finesse.
| Dummy ♣ A K 5 |
| You ♣ Q J 3 2 |
You cannot make any extra tricks in clubs because you can only lead clubs four times and you already have 4 club winners.
Example 7 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4 ♥ 5 3 2 ♦ A 8 ♣ A K 5 |
| You ♠ K J ♥ K Q 6 ♦ Q J T 9 ♣ Q J 3 2 |
You must establish another trick without taking the risk of losing the lead to dangerous East. There’s only one suit where you can do that. Which suit?
The play will start with you winning the opening lead in your hand with the ♥Q. What card will you lead next?
Oops. You’re getting ahead of yourself. Yes, you are planning to play the ♠J – as a finesse after you lead spades from dummy. You need to finesse so only West (the safe opponent) can win the trick. So your first mini-task must be to get the lead over to the dummy in another suit.
Oh no… Have you noticed that all your recent partners seem to have been “busy” the week after playing with you? Leading the ♥K here might cost you another partner. But don’t worry—this is just a practice scenario. No real harm done! ????
This finesse risks losing the lead to the dangerous opponent (East) who will lead his partner’s heart suit, trapping your ♥K and defeating your contract.
Correct, well done! You need to transfer the lead to the dummy in order to finesse in spades. Win this trick using one of dummy’s high club cards, then lead dummy’s ♠4 toward your ♠J, finessing into West’s non-threatening hand.
A challenge question….
| Dummy ♠ A T 9 8 4 ♥ 5 3 2 ♦ A 8 ♣ A K 5 |
| You ♠ K J ♥ K Q 6 ♦ Q J T 9 ♣ Q J 3 2 |
This is the exact same hand from example 7.
To review…
The hearts are split 5-2, with West holding 5 and East holding 2. You need one more trick to secure your contract, but you can’t afford to let the opponents cash their entire heart suit. The opening lead is the ♥J. Study the diagram and recall the correct way to play this hand.
As you finalize your plan, West leads the ♥10 at trick two. Unfortunately, you realize that you mistakenly played the ♥6 on the opening lead, losing the trick. Feeling a bit embarrassed, you recover by winning the second trick with your ♥Q.
You can still make your 3N contract, but circumstances have changed. The cards dealt to each player have not changed. But something very important has indeed changed. (Hint: this page is about safe and dangerous opponents.) What’s different?
Hearts have now been played twice, leaving West with established heart winners, starting with his ♥A, making him a significant threat. However, East is no longer a concern, as he started with only two hearts, which he has already played.
If you win the ♥Q on the opening lead (as demonstrated in example 7), West remains harmless. However, if you let the opening lead go and win the ♥Q on the second round (as happened in this challenge problem), East becomes the non-threatening hand.
What card will you lead from your hand after you win the ♥Q on the second round?
Example 8
| Dummy ♦ 5 3 2 | |
| West | East |
| You ♦ A Q | |
| West 2♦ P | North 2♥ P | East P P | You 3N |
As expected from the bidding, West leads a diamond against your 3N contract.
Take inventory:
You’re pleased to have two diamond winners – 2 stoppers. (Your ♦Q is promoted by playing last.)
You count the diamonds and do a split assumption. Then you reject the assumption. How do you know the split assumption is wrong?
You win the opening lead with your ♦Q.
Example 8 (repeated)
| Dummy ♦ 5 3 2 | |
| West | East |
| You ♦ A Q | |
Assess the threat:
Is West’s hand safe or dangerous?
After winning the opening lead with your ♦Q, is East’s hand safe or dangerous?
Now, imagine losing the lead while working to develop tricks, and the opponents lead diamonds for a second time. Once your second diamond stopper is used, would West be considered a threat or no longer a concern?
Is East now safe or dangerous?
I hope you observed that the roles of safe and dangerous hands can shift as the game unfolds.
Now let’s put these diamonds into a full hand so we can make a plan.
Example 9
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 ♥ A Q J 9 8 ♦ 5 3 2 ♣ Q 5 |
| You ♠ A 8 2 ♥ T 3 2 ♦ A Q ♣ K J T 9 8 |
| West 2♦ P | North 2♥ P | East P P | You 3N |
Take inventory:
The opening lead against your 3N contract is a diamond, which you win with your ♦Q.
The bidding tells you the diamonds split 6-2.
They have only one winner (♣A). They need 4 more to set your 3N contract.
Take inventory:
The opening lead against your 3N contract is a diamond, which you win with your ♦Q.
The bidding tells you the diamonds split 6-2.
They have only one winner (♣A). They need 4 more to set your 3N contract.
Assess the threat:
You will win the opening lead with your ♦Q. If you lose the lead later, the opponents will force out your ♦A, establishing four diamond tricks for themselves. After that, it’s crucial to avoid losing the lead again to a threatening opponent.
When both of your stoppers are gone, who will be dangerous and who will be safe?
Example 9 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 ♥ A Q J 9 8 ♦ 5 3 2 ♣ Q 5 |
| You ♠ A 8 2 ♥ T 3 2 ♦ A Q ♣ K J T 9 8 |
Make a plan:
After winning the opening lead, you’ll need to establish 5 additional winners. Since no single suit can provide all 5, you’ll need to develop tricks in two different suits.
You can secure 4 winners by driving out their ♣A. But does it make a difference which opponent holds the ♣A?
Next the opponents will drive out your second diamond stopper.
You will still need one more winner. Think about safe and dangerous hands… Will you lead the ♠Q from Dummy to finesse, or will you lead the ♥T from your hand to finesse?
Oh no! You’ve just finessed into a dangerous hand. If West wins this trick, they can cash their diamond winners. Take a moment to reflect—your fellow players would likely be shaking their heads. Perhaps your finesse will succeed, but relying on luck isn’t the best strategy when a safer alternative is available.
The table is filled with approving smiles. If your ♥10 wins, you’ll retain the lead in your hand, allowing you to lead another heart and repeat the finesse.
If the ♥K is favorably positioned, you’ll score 12 tricks—1 spade, 5 hearts, 2 diamonds, and 4 clubs.
Even if the ♥K is not favorably placed, you’ll lose the finesse to a non-threatening hand. In that case, you’ll still secure 11 tricks, losing only the ♣A and the ♥K. That outcome, with an overtrick, is sure to leave everyone satisfied.
Playing hearts before clubs involves significant risk. If the heart finesse loses while East still holds a diamond, he can remove your second stopper, establishing West’s diamonds as winners. Needing one more trick, you’d then turn to clubs, but if West holds the ♣A, he could gain the lead and cash all his established diamond tricks.
Transferring the Lead
When you have a marginal card that would benefit from playing last, you would like to pick which opponent is on lead. If the dangerous opponent is on lead, you can sometimes arrange for the lead to be passed over to his safe partner.
Example 10
| Dummy ♥ K 4 3 | |
| West | East |
| You ♥ 8 2 | |
Take inventory:
What is the split assumption for hearts?
Assess the threat:
East is safe. If he leads a heart, your ♥K will play last and be promoted.
West is dangerous because he can lead through your ♥K. If your ♥K gets squished, they could cash their entire heart suit. So you should look for ways to avoid this bad result.
Make a plan:
Suppose West makes a 4th best opening lead of the ♥7. Rather than risk your ♥K, you could play low from Dummy. Then East will play third-hand-high to prevent you from winning the trick cheaply.
| Dummy ♥ K 4 3 | |
| West ♥ Q J 9 7 6 | East ♥ A T 5 |
| You ♥ 8 2 | |
Let’s take a peek at the East and West cards.
There’s no realistic hope of winning the trick with your ♥8, but ducking this first trick transfers the lead over to East, who is safe. If he continues hearts, your ♥K will be promoted, which is often better than risking it on the first round of hearts.
And if he switches to another suit, you may gain crucial time to establish your tricks before they establish their hearts.
Example 11
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 2 ♥ 7 4 ♦ A T 9 ♣ A J T 4 |
| You ♠ A 8 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 6 5 ♣ K 9 8 3 |
| West 2♥ | North DBL | East P | You 3N |
West opens with a weak-two in hearts (a 6 card suit). Partner makes a takeout double, and you jump to 3N.
The opening lead against your 3N contract is the ♥8, East plays the ♥Q and you win with your ♥A. You expected West to have both missing heart honors for his 2♥ opening, so you’re disappointed not to win this first trick with your ♥J.
Then you remember that you were supposed to do your count and plan before you played to the first trick. Oh, well… you hope it’s not too late to stop and think now.
Take inventory:
Count winners for both sides.
Example 11 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 2 ♥ 7 4 ♦ A T 9 ♣ A J T 4 |
| You ♠ A 8 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 6 5 ♣ K 9 8 3 |
How many extra winners might you get in each suit?
Even if all these finesses lose, you will have 3 additional winners – just enough. Of course, you will not be playing hearts yourself, though you will be happy if West leads hearts and presents you with the gift of a second heart winner.
What is the heart split?
Assess the threat:
Hearts is the only suit where the defense can establish enough tricks to threaten your contract.
After the first trick, when you win the ♥A, is either opponent safe?
Yes, West is harmless. If West leads hearts again later, your ♥J will be promoted by playing last, becoming both a second stopper and a second heart winner for you.
While it’s fortunate that West is not a threat, East is a different story. With one heart remaining, East could lead it, forcing your ♥J into a finesse, allowing West to cash five heart tricks. If you give East the lead, you’ll have to hope your partner is understanding and that others at the table are too preoccupied with their own contracts to notice how you needlessly lost a trick to a dangerous opponent. ????
Example 11 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 2 ♥ 7 4 ♦ A T 9 ♣ A J T 4 |
| You ♠ A 8 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 6 5 ♣ K 9 8 3 |
Something to be aware of…
After you win the first trick, suppose you lose the lead to West, and he continues hearts. When your ♥J is gone, would the safe and dangerous opponents be the same?
Make a plan:
The first time you risk losing the lead, it must be to West’s safe hand. Which suit(s) have possible finesses that would be safe?
These three possible finesses are not equal. From worst to best…
- The spade finesse is least favorable because, even if it “wins,” the ♠Q will be covered and you will have only one extra trick – one promoted lesser honor (♠J). You do not have enough spades to hope for a skater.
- The diamond finesse is better because, if it wins, the ♦T will be covered and you will have 2 extra tricks – 2 promoted lesser honors (♦9 and ♦J). Unfortunately, your new winners will be blocked, with no small diamond in the dummy to lead to the ♦J in your hand. You can unblock them, but you will have to be careful to do so before you run out of entries to your hand.
- The club finesse is best because, if it wins, the ♣J will be covered and you will have 2 extra tricks – 2 promoted lesser honors (♣9 and ♣T). The suit will not be blocked and you will have club winners in both hands to use to cross the lead for future finesses into whichever hand is safe at that time.
Example 11 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ Q J 7 2 ♥ 7 4 ♦ A T 9 ♣ A J T 4 |
| You ♠ A 8 ♥ A J 3 ♦ K J 6 5 ♣ K 9 8 3 |
Suppose you take the safe club finesse, it loses, and West returns a heart. You will have 8 winners – ♠A, ♥AJ, ♦AK, and ♣AKT. You will need another winner. So what will you do if West wins your club finesse and returns a heart?
Instead…. Suppose West wins your club finesse and does not return a heart. Instead he returns a club. Then you will have only 7 winners – 1 spade, 1 heart, 2 diamonds, and 3 clubs. You will need two more. West will remain the safe opponent because his hearts are still not ready to cash. What will you do if West wins your club finesse and returns a club?
Keeping track of which opponent is safe as the play progresses, lets you take safe finesses into his safe hand, and make your contract.
With a sense of pride, the player declares, “I used to be a risky partner at the table because I didn’t understand the concept of safe and dangerous hands. Now, I’ve turned that knowledge into a weapon, becoming a real challenge for my opponents instead.”
Example 12
| Dummy ♠ A Q 7 | |
| West | East |
| You ♠ J 6 2 | |
The opening lead is ♠5.
If you play the ♠Q from Dummy and the ♠K is on your left, your finesse will win. But West’s ♠K will remain poised to squish your ♠J so you will only make two spade tricks.
However, if you play low in the dummy and the ♠K is on your left (as you expect), you could win three spade tricks – first playing last with the ♠J, then later finessing with your ♠Q. That would be great.
So you might be tempted to play the ♠7 from Dummy as soon as you notice this opportunity to take advantage of the favorable spade lead.
But I must caution you not to play from Dummy before you take inventory and assess the threat, including who’s safe and who’s dangerous. Then decide if playing low on the opening lead fits into your overall plan for the hand.
Let’s see how that works…
Example 13
| Dummy ♠ A Q 7 ♥ K Q 7 6 ♦ Q T 5 ♣ 9 6 5 |
| You ♠ J 6 2 ♥ A 3 2 ♦ K J 9 8 7 ♣ A 3 |
Your contract is 3N. The opening lead is the ♠5.
A comment arises: “We just reviewed these spades. I have a feeling it’s going to be crucial to think carefully before making a move.”
Me: “Yes, absolutely. Let’s see what we can figure out.”
Take inventory:
What is the split assumption for spades?
How many winners does each side have?
You need 4 more winners. You can get all 4 from the diamond suit.
Assess the threat:
You have two choices for what to play from Dummy on the opening lead. You can play second hand low, or you can win with the ♠A.
- If you play second hand low, you might get 3 spade tricks when the ♠K is on your left. But you will lose the first trick if the ♠K is on your right.
- If you play the ace, you will get the lead immediately, but you will never get 3 spade tricks.
Either way you would have at least 2 spade stoppers. So you will win the race to establish and cash your diamonds before they can establish and cash their spades.
Example 13 (repeated)
| Dummy ♠ A Q 7 ♥ K Q 7 6 ♦ Q T 5 ♣ 9 6 5 |
| You ♠ J 6 2 ♥ A 3 2 ♦ K J 9 8 7 ♣ A 3 |
But there’s another kind of danger…
Check all four suits. If East wins the opening lead with his ♠K, which suit could he switch to that would create skaters for them (making both opponents dangerous) while they still have the ♦A to regain the lead?
Make a plan:
You can win the opening lead and prevent the defenders from switching to clubs before you dislodge the ♦A.
You could then start diamonds at trick two. But can you win 9 tricks before they win 5 tricks?
The exact number of tricks you will be able to cash depends on which suit they return when they play their ♦A, and if hearts split 3-3. Their best play is to clear the clubs, but they may well give you an extra trick by continuing spades.
Sometimes the danger is not in the suit that has been led, but in a switch to another suit. If they haven’t started the danger suit, it’s often correct to seize the lead quickly and start your own long suit, getting ahead in the race to establish the winners you need before they can switch suits and establish the winners they need.
A question arises: “Is it always best to win the lead immediately so I can establish my winners first?”
The response: “Not always. Sometimes it’s important to delay using your stopper until one of the defenders runs out of cards in the dangerous suit. This strategy, known as a hold-up play, allows you to plan losing the lead to the safe defender. While they may establish their winners, they won’t be able to cash them. It’s acceptable for the safe defender to gain the lead because they no longer have cards in the dangerous suit.”
We’ll see how to do that on the next page.
The full-hand examples on this page have been detailed and complex. If you found them challenging to follow, it might be helpful to review them carefully before proceeding to the next section.